Dallas Stars vs Boston Bruins prediction: 44% vs a 38% price

Boston have won five straight and the price still treats them like a routine underdog in Dallas.

By the numbers

Implied probability is just 1 ÷ price, so 2.60 means the market needs Boston to win 38.5% of the time to break even.

Last five

• Boston: W 4-2 at Anaheim, W 6-3 at San Jose, W 5-1 vs Philadelphia, W 6-1 vs Utah, plus a win at Los Angeles. In the four games with a clean score line that is 21 goals for and 7 against. Season record: 7-2-0.
• Dallas: W 4-0 at Chicago, W 3-2 at Colorado, L 2-3 vs Colorado, L 1-2 at Pittsburgh, W 4-0 at Buffalo. That is 14 for and 7 against. Season record: 4-3-1.

My estimate vs the market

Both defenses have allowed seven goals in the sample, so the gap is at the other end: Boston are scoring a little over five a game in the four clean results, Dallas just under three. I give the home side its usual edge and still land around 44% for Boston, which is a rough number built on small samples, not a model. Against the 38.5% the best price implies, that is a gap of roughly five to six points; even the median at 2.40 (41.7%) sits below my estimate.

Verdict

Boston at 2.60, because their scoring run and record say this is closer to a coin flip than the price does.