New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies prediction: defense breaks the rematch

The first meeting explains why this is not a simple records-based pick. New Orleans beat Memphis 135-134 in overtime eleven days ago, proving it can score efficiently enough to punish the Grizzlies when the game becomes a track meet. The rematch arrives under very different conditions: the Pelicans have lost four straight and allowed at least 138 points in each of their last three games.

Memphis also has problems. The Grizzlies started 6-0 but have lost four of five, and Friday's injury report removes Zach Edey, Quinten Post and Scotty Pippen Jr. from the rotation. That weakens interior depth and secondary ball-handling. The case for Memphis therefore comes from the larger season baseline and New Orleans' current defensive collapse, not from a healthy roster advantage.

Same possession, different outcomes

Memphis has been better at turning one possession into a stable offensive sequence. Ty Jerome has scored at least 20 points in five straight games, and Jaylen Wells has provided another consistent perimeter option. New Orleans has Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray to create pressure, but the defense has repeatedly failed to finish possessions after the first action.

The Pelicans are also carrying their own availability issues. Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi, Bennedict Mathurin and Bryce McGowens were listed doubtful, with Trendon Watford out. If several of those players remain unavailable, New Orleans loses both shooting and defensive size at the same time.

The first game still matters as a counter-scenario. New Orleans already demonstrated that it can drag Memphis into a high-possession game and win by one possession. If Zion gets downhill early and the Pelicans shoot well enough to force Memphis out of its preferred half-court rhythm, another close finish is realistic.

The current moneyline prices Memphis around 1.64 and New Orleans around 2.41. That difference is consistent with the 7-4 versus 4-8 records, but the injury lists on both sides keep the expected margin limited. With New Orleans' recent defense providing the largest negative signal, Memphis gets the final edge.

Projected score · New Orleans Pelicans 115 VS 121 Memphis Grizzlies