New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers prediction: the dog only loses close

Both teams come in at 5-3, so this one is about margins more than about who is better.

3 things that decide this one

1. New England at home. The Patriots are 3-0 at Gillette this season and their team preview frames Sunday as a shot at 4-0. The home wins I can see were 26-19 over the Jets and 45-17 over the Raiders, with Drake Maye riding a run of multi-touchdown games.

1. Green Bay's recent loss was a close one. The Packers' only defeat in their last four came 20-17 in Detroit, a three-point game on the road. Around it they beat Chicago 31-7, Dallas 23-13 and Carolina 27-19. Jordan Love is the name the matchup previews keep coming back to, and the Packers have been in every game.

1. New England's non-blowouts are tight. Outside the Raiders game, the Patriots won 24-19 at Miami and 26-19 against the Jets and lost 30-24 in Chicago. Those are margins of five, seven and six points. Against a team at the same record, a field goal or a single score is the most common way this goes.

The number

The main line is Patriots -3.5, and the best price on Green Bay +3.5 is 1.87 (about -115). The moneyline barely moved in 24 hours (Packers 2.48 to 2.47). Three is the key number in this sport, and at +3.5 the Packers cover every three-point loss, which is exactly how they lost in Detroit.

Lean

I lean Packers +3.5 at 1.87.