Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers on the road

Win ranking: 1st, Cleveland on the road (near even). 2nd, Oklahoma City at home (near even).
Gap between 1st and 2nd: Oklahoma City beat Cleveland 117-112 on November 3, but lost 98-119 at Houston on November 1 and 96-120 at Dallas on October 29. Cleveland lost 112-117 at home to Oklahoma City on November 3, beat Milwaukee 136-111 on November 1 and lost 111-114 at Atlanta on October 30. Oklahoma City's average margin over those three games is about -13, while Cleveland's is about +6. The moneyline price for a Cleveland win is 2.28 at Pinnacle, and Oklahoma City is 1.73 at Betfair.
Decisive factors:

• Process: Cleveland's average margin is better by about 19 points over the last three games.
• Class: both teams are 2nd in their standings.
• Availability: confirmed lineups were not collected for this match.

Final prediction:

• Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs Cleveland Cavaliers (10:00 KST)
• Pick: Cleveland moneyline, 2.28 at Pinnacle

Conclusion: the bigger recent margins make the away Cavaliers the pick.