They've already swept them once this week

Two days ago Karmine Corp and MVK Esports met in the Play-In upper bracket and it wasn't close: a clean 3-0 for Karmine Corp. That sweep pushed KC straight through to the final round, and sent MVK the long way round.

To their credit, MVK took the long way and made it. They came back through the lower bracket to set up this rematch, with the last Swiss Stage spot at Worlds on the line. That's a team with momentum and nothing to lose, and rematches in a five-game series can turn on one adjustment.

But the story I keep coming back to is the first meeting. KC didn't just beat MVK, they shut them out. KC needed all five games to get past Cloud9 earlier in the week, but against MVK they looked comfortable. It's a 5am AEDT start on Monday for anyone up early enough to watch.

The price

KC are 1.08 on the median to win the series, which tells you nothing you didn't already know. The -2.5 maps line, which is a repeat of the sweep, is out at 2.38. The story says sweep; the price says it's a bit better than a coin flip against it. That's an honest gap.

Verdict

Karmine Corp -2.5 maps at 2.38: the same result as two days ago.