40% by my numbers, 36% by the price: the better goal difference is on the road

At 2.81, San Diego FC are priced at 35.6% to win — and over the last day the market has been moving their way.

By the numbers

Implied probability = 1 ÷ price. A 9% shortening on the road side while the home price drifts is the kind of move I pay attention to.

Recent results (goals for–against)

• LA Galaxy: 2–0 vs Portland Timbers, 2–6 at St. Louis City
• San Diego FC: 3–3 vs Houston Dynamo, 1–4 at New York Red Bulls

Small sample, and both defenses have had a bad night recently. The season numbers are more useful.

My estimate vs the market

LA Galaxy have 39 points from 30 games with a goal difference of -9 (-0.30 per game). San Diego FC have 33 points from 29 games at -3 (-0.10 per game). The home side has the better points total, but the road side has been the better team by goal difference, which tends to predict future results more reliably than points. Add the head-to-head: San Diego are unbeaten in three meetings with the Galaxy, most recently a 3-1 win on August 29. I start from a typical MLS away-win rate around 30%, nudge it up for the 0.2-goal-per-game gap and the matchup history, and land near 40%. The best price implies 35.6%, so the gap is about four points.

Verdict: the numbers and the 24-hour move point the same way, and San Diego FC at 2.81 is my pick.