3.04 is a price built on the table, not on the shots

At 3.04 the best price on Manchester United implies about 33%, and the median of 2.92 puts it at 34%. Leeds, at a best of 2.42 and a median of 2.33, are rated somewhere between 41% and 43%. One preview this week made a point of Leeds being the favourites, as if that settled the matter. Nothing in the last 24 hours has challenged that view; the United price has drifted from 3.01 to 3.04 and the home price has not moved at all.

The case for the crowd is the table. Leeds are seventh on nine points from six games, United are 13th on six, and United arrive from a midweek defeat at Atletico Madrid after a 1-1 draw with Tottenham. Leeds lost only 2-1 at Arsenal last time out, which flatters them as a side that competes with the top end. The case against the crowd is that a six-game table is mostly finishing luck. United have taken more shots than anyone in the league this season; the problem has been converting them, and that is the part of football that tends to turn rather than persist. Markets that lean on points over process usually leave a little value on the side with the process.

I do not think United are favourites here, and the draw at 3.70 is too close to the median to interest me. But a club generating the most shots in the division should not be a 33% chance against a side whose edge so far is six games of points. The drift is the opportunity, not the warning.

Manchester United to win at 3.04.