Manchester Utd vs Bournemouth prediction: 2.15 is a Como tax, not a forecast

A day ago the home win was 2.03; it is now 2.15, while Bournemouth have shortened from 3.95 to 3.51, the sharpest move on this weekend's Premier League board. At 2.15 the market gives United roughly 46.5%, and the median of 2.10 is not far off at about 47.6%. So the crowd still makes them favourites, just less convinced than it was before Wednesday.

The reason for the drift is no secret. United were taken apart 4-1 at Como in the Champions League, a result that stretched their run to seven matches without a win, and Michael Carrick called the performance not acceptable. Bournemouth, meanwhile, beat AC Milan 3-0 on Thursday after a 2-0 league win over Sunderland. That is precisely the sort of midweek contrast the market tends to overprice. Look at the league results rather than the European ones: United's last two Premier League games were 1-1 draws, at Leeds and at home to Tottenham, not defeats. Bournemouth's last trip to a big side ended 5-1 at Chelsea. The move on the away price has been driven by headlines from two different competitions, and a price that moves 11% on a story everyone already knows is usually paying the late money rather than reflecting new information. Bournemouth also played on Thursday, a day after United did, which the move seems to ignore.

I am not pretending United are in good shape. But the crowd has priced in a crisis that their recent league numbers do not quite show, and when a favourite drifts this far on a narrative, the value tends to sit on the side the public has just left. If the price drifts again before kick-off, it gets more interesting, not less.

Verdict: Manchester Utd to win at 2.15, the price the Como result handed back.