Texas vs Ole Miss prediction: Oct 24, 2026, QB Pressure and Run Game

Ole Miss has the stronger recent offensive profile entering Austin, particularly when Trinidad Chambliss can combine efficient passing with a credible rushing attack. The Rebels have followed their loss at Florida with convincing wins over Vanderbilt and Missouri; their 257 rushing yards against Missouri make the offensive front a central matchup concern for Texas. The Longhorns have dropped consecutive three-point games to Oklahoma and Florida, and their inability to sustain drives against Florida was especially troubling: just 272 total yards and 13 first downs. Arch Manning remains the expected focal point of the Texas passing game, but protection, quicker decisions, and better early-down efficiency are crucial.

Texas still has a realistic home-field path. A disruptive defensive front could force Chambliss into longer passing downs, while Manning's receivers offer enough explosive-play potential to punish aggressive coverage. Ole Miss is not without defensive risk, as Florida scored 52 against the Rebels earlier in the season. However, Ole Miss's more balanced recent production gives the visitors multiple ways to sustain possessions, and that flexibility slightly outweighs Texas's home advantage. My moneyline lean is Ole Miss, although the available price should not be mistaken for a proven value edge. A Texas rebound built on clean quarterback play and timely defensive stops is the clearest threat to this selection. The handicap and total below are score-derived projections, not market lines.

Game Projection

Predicted Score: Texas 27 – Ole Miss 31
Projected Handicap: Texas +4.0 / Ole Miss -4.0
Projected Over/Under Total: 58.0 points