Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots prediction: two offenses that score

Both teams come in at 4-2, and neither one has been winning ugly lately. Here's what decides this total.

3 things that decide this one

1. New England's offense is rolling. The Patriots put up 45 on the Raiders two weeks ago and followed it with 26 against the Jets. That's 71 points in two games. An offense scoring like that doesn't usually shrink to 17 on a Thursday.

1. Chicago's defense has been giving up points. The Bears allowed 31 at Green Bay and 23 at Atlanta, so 54 against in their last two road games. Now they're home, which helps, but the trend says this defense bends a lot before it breaks.

1. Chicago's offense swings both ways, but it can keep up. The Bears were held to 7 in Green Bay, then answered with 31 in Atlanta. If the Atlanta version shows up, this turns into a trading-points game in a hurry, and the Bears are home favorites for a reason.

The number

The total sits at 50.5, with the over at 1.90 (about -111) and the under at 1.98. It's barely moved in 24 hours, and the alternate lines show the market isn't sure: 51.5 is priced close to even. The four games these teams played most recently landed at 54, 38, 45 and 62, an average just under 50. That's a coin flip on raw numbers, so the matchups have to tip it, and two of the three above point up.

Lean

I lean over 50.5 at 1.90: New England's scoring plus Chicago's leaky recent defense outweighs one bad Bears night in Green Bay.