Toronto Raptors vs Chicago Bulls prediction: 9.5 is a lot on opening night

3 things that decide this one

1. The gap from last season is real, but it is already priced. Toronto went 46-36 last year, Chicago went 31-51, and the Raptors swept the season series 3-0. Nobody is arguing the Bulls are the better team. The question is whether a 15-win gap turns into a double-digit margin in game one, when rotations are still settling.

1. Chicago's offense showed up late in the exhibition slate. The Bulls closed with 130 points against Minnesota and 125 in Milwaukee, both wins by 19 or more. Toronto's last two were 120-122 in New York and 125-129 in Detroit. A team scoring 125-plus and a team giving up 120-plus is the kind of matchup where a big favorite can win and still not cover nine and a half.

1. Toronto's ceiling is high, and so is the variance. The Raptors also beat the Knicks 148-98, so the blowout is in the range. But one 50-point night and two narrow losses on the road tell you their margin is swinging a lot from night to night. Laying a big number on a swingy margin is the bet I'd rather not make.

The number

Early lines had Toronto -8.5 with a total near 235.5. Most books now sit at -9.5, with the dog side at 1.90 (about -110), and the total has settled at 236.5. The move has gone with Toronto, so the extra point is now on the Chicago side of the ticket.

Lean

I lean Chicago +9.5 at 1.90: Toronto probably wins, and the number says that, but ten points is a wide gap for a team that just scored 125-plus twice.