Detroit Pistons vs Boston Celtics prediction: the road team came in sharper

Opening night pairs the top two teams in the East from last season, Detroit at 60-22 and Boston at 56-26, and the board treats it as a coin flip. Here's how I see it.

3 things that decide this one

1. Who showed up ready. Boston won its last four tune-up games, and not by accident: 144-106 over Philadelphia, 124-113 in Cleveland, 114-93 over Charlotte, then 125-120 in Philadelphia. Detroit went 2-1 over its last three, and the loss came in Washington. Small sample, but one team looks further along.

1. Defense in the wins. Boston held Charlotte to 93 and Philadelphia to 106 at home. Detroit's wins came in shootouts, 129-125 over Toronto and 128-106 in Minnesota. If this turns into a half-court grind, I trust the side that has been getting stops.

1. Home floor vs road form. Detroit has the crowd and the banner-night energy, and that's real. But Boston won both road games in that recent run, including a double-digit win in Cleveland, so playing away hasn't bothered this group.

The number

The moneyline sits almost dead even, with medians of 1.92 Detroit and 1.90 Boston. The move over the last 24 hours went to Boston, whose best price came in from 2.00 to 1.94 while Detroit barely moved. That's roughly -106 on the Celtics, so the market is drifting the same way the matchups point.

Lean

I lean Boston on the moneyline at 1.94 — the sharper preseason team, getting a near pick'em price on the road.