Cleveland Cavaliers vs Dallas Mavericks prediction: 231.5 vs a 226 average

By the numbers

Implied probability = 1 ÷ price. Both sides at 1.94 means the market has this as a coin flip with a small margin on top. Nine books price this game, 231.5 is the main line, and there is no recorded 24-hour move on the total.

Recent five, combined points

• Cleveland: 254 (121-133 at Miami), 222 (115-107 at New York), 236 (112-124 at Charlotte), 206 (97-109 vs New York), 214 (119-95 vs Philadelphia). Average 226.4, two of five over 231.5.
• Dallas: 227 (94-133 at Minnesota), 247 (125-122 vs Indiana), 223 (130-93 vs Brooklyn), 212 (112-100 vs Utah), 223 (111-112 at San Antonio). Average 226.4, one of five over 231.5.

That is ten games, three overs, and both teams averaging exactly the same 226.4 combined. Cleveland is also on the second night of a back-to-back after the game in Miami.

My estimate vs the market

If I center this game at about 226 and use a typical spread of roughly 20 points for an NBA game total, the chance it lands under 231.5 comes out near 60%. The market is pricing the under at roughly 50% after you strip the margin, so the gap is about ten points in my favor. It is a rough model, and one hot shooting night beats it, but both teams' recent scoring points the same way.

Verdict

Under 231.5 at 1.94.