San Antonio Spurs vs Golden State Warriors prediction: Warriors upset route

San Antonio owns the stronger baseline, but the moneyline price forces a different question: is Golden State's offense without Stephen Curry being discounted too aggressively? Curry is out with an oblique abdominal tear, yet the Warriors were 8-4 before this game and had won eight straight before the Houston loss in which he exited early.

The non-Curry evidence matters

Golden State's own game preview notes that the Warriors have outscored opponents by 2.3 points per 100 possessions in non-Curry minutes this season. That sample does not replace Curry's 27.8 points and elite spacing, but it does show that the current roster has functioned better without him than previous versions did. Yaxel Lendeborg and Brandin Podziemski both produced more than 20 points against Houston, giving Golden State at least two credible secondary creation routes.

San Antonio's 10-game winning streak is real and Victor Wembanyama has been dominant, averaging 32.6 points, 11.4 rebounds and 4.5 blocks during the run. The upset path therefore cannot depend on attacking the rim repeatedly. Golden State needs to stretch Wembanyama away from the paint, win the three-point volume battle and avoid live-ball turnovers that let the Spurs run before the defense is set.

Both teams played Wednesday, so there is no major rest edge to stack on top of San Antonio's home advantage. Devin Vassell is also questionable with an adductor injury. If he is limited or unavailable, the Spurs lose one of the perimeter scorers who can punish Golden State when the Warriors load extra attention toward Wembanyama.

What has to happen for the upset

• Podziemski must keep the first unit organized without allowing San Antonio to turn missed shots into transition runs.
• Golden State needs another efficient scoring night from its secondary wings and rookie production.
• Wembanyama can still dominate individually, but the Warriors need to make the other Spurs create against a set defense late in the clock.

San Antonio is the safer straight-up side, but the gap between the teams is not as large as a Curry-only reading implies. With Golden State's non-Curry units holding up, the Warriors coming off an eight-game surge, and San Antonio carrying a perimeter availability question, the upset route is narrow but playable as the ML selection for this forecast.

Projected score · San Antonio Spurs 110 VS 113 Golden State Warriors