Ottawa Senators vs Colorado Avalanche prediction: One-goal contest

A rebound around Ottawa's crease could decide this meeting. Colorado have scored 78 goals over 19 games, compared with Ottawa's 60, but both teams hold 24 standings points. Ottawa's 6-2-1 home record offsets some of the visitors' greater attacking output.

Colorado's 6-3 victory over Toronto followed a 4-0 win over Detroit. Gabriel Landeskog scored twice against Toronto. Ottawa led Washington 2-1 before conceding late and losing 3-2 in overtime, having won its two earlier games. One loss is not evidence that Ottawa's defending has collapsed.

Colorado's recent goal production should not be extended mechanically into another six-goal night. Ottawa can counter with a tighter neutral zone and home pressure. Colorado will look to win puck retrievals and turn those possessions into repeat scoring chances, where its stronger season-long attack matters.

The critical rotation

Ottawa forward Nick Cousins is expected to miss this fixture, while the starting goalkeepers and Linus Ullmark's availability must be checked near puck drop. Colorado also have defensive depth injuries. Goaltender changes could reverse a close projection; an unconfirmed lineup is not treated as a certainty.

The moneyline offers Colorado at about 1.87 and Ottawa at about 2.05, each from a different bookmaker. These are market quotes rather than a single bookmaker's margin-free probabilities. The visitors' stronger attack gives them a slight edge, but Ottawa's home results make a one-goal outcome plausible.

Pick: Colorado to win including overtime. A competitive final period is more plausible than a clear mismatch.

Projected score · Ottawa Senators 3 VS 4 Colorado Avalanche