Minnesota Timberwolves vs Utah Jazz prediction: 58% vs a 50% price on -11.5

By the numbers

Implied probability = 1 ÷ price; the two spread sides add up to about 102.7%, which is the book margin.

Last five, points for and against

• Timberwolves: 115-109 at New Orleans, 117-107 at Houston, 112-100 vs Milwaukee, 111-121 at San Antonio, 127-101 vs Clippers. Average margin +8.8; at home +12 and +26.
• Jazz: 100-112 at Dallas, 113-120 at New Orleans, 97-119 at San Antonio, 90-112 vs Portland, 111-117 vs San Antonio. Average margin -13.8; on the road -12, -7 and -22.

My estimate vs the market

Minnesota has played six of its first ten on the road and this game starts an eight-game homestand. Utah has lost seven in a row. My rough model: take Minnesota's average home margin over these five (+19.0, two games) and Utah's average road margin (-13.7, three games), and average the two views of the same game: about a 16-point Minnesota win. Five games is a tiny sample, so I shrink that halfway toward the market line and land near 14. NBA margins swing roughly 12 to 13 points either way, so a 14-point expectation clears 11.5 about 58% of the time. The 1.99 price says 50.3%. That is a gap of roughly eight points in my favor, with a small sample behind it, so I treat it as a lean rather than a strong edge.

Verdict

Timberwolves -11.5 at 1.99.