Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers prediction: Home edge and score

San Francisco return from a bye at 6-1 to host the 4-4 Raiders at Levi's Stadium. The 49ers are the tentative winner: their more balanced scoring profile, home venue and extra rest outweigh Las Vegas's improving passing game. The projected final score is 31-24, but this is a scenario rather than a calibrated probability forecast.

Team strength

The Raiders' attack is no longer harmless. Kirk Cousins has passed for 2,124 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions in eight games, while Brock Purdy has 1,748 yards and 15 touchdowns in seven. San Francisco's defense has allowed approximately 19.9 points per game, compared with about 28.8 for Las Vegas. Those raw scoring differences favor the hosts, although opponent-adjusted EPA per play and success rates were not independently calculated.

Quarterbacks and line play

Purdy returns from San Francisco's bye with more recovery time, and Nick Bosa is available after returning to full practice. The Raiders will have to maintain protection against the home pass rush. Cousins' passing efficiency gives Las Vegas a path to keep pace; defensive pressure and a short field after turnovers could change the margin.

Personnel and scoring paths

The 49ers have ruled out receivers Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel and Christian Kirk, reducing their passing options. Christian McCaffrey practiced fully on Friday after a hamstring issue and has no game-status designation. The Raiders have ruled out defensive tackle Thomas Booker. San Francisco may rely more on McCaffrey and George Kittle for sustainable drives. Las Vegas can counter through Cousins and Brock Bowers, particularly if the home secondary is weakened.

Risk balance

A 31-24 outcome assumes San Francisco can turn a rest and defensive advantage into efficient red-zone possessions. A close Raiders upset becomes more plausible if Cousins avoids turnovers and the home receiving absences blunt explosive plays. No independent EPA-based ensemble, red-zone model or Monte Carlo distribution was run.

Final prediction

• Winner: San Francisco 49ers
• Illustrative chances: Raiders 29% / 49ers 71%
• Projected score: Las Vegas 24-31 San Francisco
• Main pick: San Francisco 49ers moneyline