Two away goals in three trips: why under 2.5 at 2.45 is the overpriced side

Marseille have scored just 2 goals in three away matches this season (1 win, 2 defeats), and those three games produced 5 goals in total, under two per match.

They did win their last league game, but it came straight after four defeats in a row. Overall they are 14th on 6 points with 9 scored and 8 conceded in six games, so this is not a side producing open, high-scoring matches.

Angers, one place higher on 7 points, have played three home games with 3 goals for and 4 against, 7 goals across the three. Their overall goal difference of 7 scored and 10 conceded in six matches points to tight games rather than shoot-outs.

The market makes over 2.5 the favourite at 1.65, which implies roughly a 60% chance of three or more goals. With an away attack this blunt, under 2.5 at 2.45 looks the better-priced side of the line.

Verdict: under 2.5 goals at 2.45.