Leeds vs Tottenham prediction: three on the trot and still the outsider

The last time Spurs turned up at Elland Road, in October last year, they won 2-1 and ended Leeds' long unbeaten home run in the league. The winner came early in the second half. It's a good place to start, because the two sides have arrived at this one heading in opposite directions again.

Spurs have won three league games on the trot: 3-1 against Coventry, 2-0 at Chelsea and 2-0 against Crystal Palace, all by two goals or more. Before that they drew 1-1 at Old Trafford. Leeds, meanwhile, haven't won in four: beaten 2-1 at Arsenal, held 1-1 by Manchester United, 0-0 at Sunderland and then 2-0 down at Bournemouth with nothing to show for it. That's two goals in four games.

The one bit of the story that cuts the other way is Elland Road itself. Leeds haven't lost at home this season, one win and three draws, and Spurs have only won once on the road. So this isn't a case of a crumbling home side. It's a case of a home side that draws a lot meeting a visitor who has found a way to win.

The price

The market has these two almost dead level: Leeds 2.62 at the median, Spurs 2.70, and the best on Spurs is 2.77. Nothing has moved in 24 hours, so the three-game run hasn't shortened Tottenham at all. Kick-off is 11:30pm AEDT on Saturday, which is when I'll be watching.

Verdict

The story points to the side in form, and the price still treats them as the outsider. Spurs at 2.77.