Green Bay's offense isn't built for a 54-point night

3 things that decide this one

1. Green Bay's offense is the slow half of the matchup. The Packers are scoring about 20.8 points a game. Even against a Dallas defense giving up roughly 27 a game, that projects to a mid-20s night, not a shootout.

1. The Packers' defense just showed what it can do. Green Bay beat Chicago 31-7 last week with five takeaways. Dallas scores about 27.6 a game, but they were held to 16 at home by Tampa Bay last week, so this offense can be slowed down.

1. The averages don't add up to 54. Blend each offense with the defense it faces and you get roughly 24 for Green Bay and 25 for Dallas, about 49 total. The 40-40 tie these two played in 2025 is the memory everyone brings to this game, but that was a different season.

The number

The total sits at 53.5 with the under at 1.94 (about -106) and the over at 1.93, and some books have it at 52.5. The moneyline barely moved in the last day (Green Bay 1.89 to 1.91), and a gap of about four points between my rough projection and the number is enough for me.

Lean

I lean under 53.5 at 1.94.